François Chollet 谈软件工程"全面自动化"的四个观察
Chollet 用四个事实拆穿了"程序员要被取代"的说法，讲清了为什么自动化后瓶颈会挪到别处。
François Chollet 在 X 上发文指出，2025 年后软件工程师数量不减反增，工作强度达到历史新高。他观察到智能体已编写接近 100% 的代码，但雇用这些工程师的公司的利润并未因采用 AI 而明显改善。他以此说明自动化单个环节会产生新的摩擦，瓶颈只是转移到系统其他位置。
Some observations about the "total" automation of software engineering:
1. There are more software engineers now than in 2025, and demand is growing.
2. Software engineers have never worked harder than they do now.
3. They largely don't write code anymore, agents write ~100% of the code.
4. The bottom line of the companies that employs these engineers and agents (i.e. the terminal purpose of all this code) is typically not budging as a result of AI adoption.
This is why you have to think in terms of systems. Automating one aspect of a system creates its own friction and moves the bottlenecks elsewhere.