Morgan Stanley：算上数据中心租赁后，2027年AI资本支出达1.58万亿美元
Morgan Stanley把藏起来的数据中心租赁也算进capex，算出2027年1.58万亿美元的盘子，Nvidia一家拿走44%，数字很具体。
Morgan Stanley把数据中心租赁计入资本支出后，估算2027年超大规模云厂商与neocloud的AI支出总额为1.58万亿美元。其中约1.1万亿美元租赁尚未启动，这类支出的性质类似债务融资购买，但未体现在capex中。约65%即1.03万亿美元落入S&P 500公司营收，Nvidia一家占约6900亿美元，占整体预算的44%。其余约5500亿美元流向指数外的韩国存储厂商和台湾ODM，GPU租赁类neocloud因依赖项目债和可转债融资，在2027年预计现金缺口峰值时融资成本风险最大。
Morgan Stanley puts 2027’s hyperscaler and neocloud AI spending at $1.58T after counting data-center leases as capex.
Hyperscalers hold over $1.1T in leases that haven’t begun, which work like debt-funded purchases but never appear as capex.
About 65% of the 2027 total, roughly $1.03T, lands in S&P 500 revenue, and Nvidia takes about $690B of it, or 44% of the entire budget.
That leaves roughly $340B for the other 499 index members, while about $550B flows outside the index to Korean memory makers, Taiwanese ODMs and private companies.
With 2027 the projected peak cash shortfall, GPU-rental neoclouds funding builds through project debt and convertibles are the most exposed to financing costs.
