NYU教授Damodaran：AI泡沫与互联网泡沫的两大关键区别
估值大师Damodaran拆解AI热潮和2000年互联网泡沫的两个本质区别：巨额CapEx和债务融资，讲清了为什么这次回调可能更疼。
NYU Stern商学院估值教授Aswath Damodaran在Excess Returns节目中对比了2000年的dot-com泡沫与当前的AI热潮。他指出互联网泡沫周期几乎没有传统CapEx和研发投入，而本轮AI的基础设施资本开支规模堪比100年前的汽车业。第二个区别是融资结构：dot-com泡沫几乎全部由股权融资支撑，亏损限于股东，而AI的巨额CapEx有相当部分来自私募资本的债务融资。Damodaran认为一旦回调出现，债务违约的冲击会外溢到整个社会，类似2008年贷款方过度放贷后的局面。
dot-com bubble vs. a possible AI bubble.
From the famous "Dean of Valuation", Professor Aswath Damodaran, of NYU Stern School of Business,
“And that’s the real big difference between the dot-com boom and bust and the AI boom. We don’t know whether there’ll be a bust. History suggests there will be a bust.
The dot-com boom and bust had no huge capital expenditure in that cycle. In fact, there was very little traditional CapEx, or even R&D, driving it. People started apps. They basically started going on it.
This has been the biggest infrastructure run-up I think I’ve ever seen in business. You can go back and compare it to the automobile business 100 years ago. The amount of money that’s being put into AI CapEx is immense, which means that when the correction comes, the pain will be more intense.
And herein lies the second problem. The dot-com boom and bust was almost entirely equity-funded. You think, so what? Well, when the bust came, those shareholders lost 60%, 70%, 80%, or 90% of their money. You felt sorry for them, but the loss was restricted to the shareholders.
The problem with the AI CapEx boom is that not only is it immense, but a big chunk of it is funded with debt, and the debt is coming from private capital rather than banks. There’s a very real chance that if there’s a correction and companies start having problems, that problem is going to show up as distress and default, and that really doesn’t stay restricted. It spills over into the rest of society.
I’m not saying it’s going to be 2008, but 2008 is an example of what happens when lenders overreach, when they lend money at too low a rate, and the correction comes. The pain spills over.
So that is my concern with this big market illusion: the potential societal cost of having to deal with debt coming due that you’re unable to pay. It’s much more painful than your share price dropping 90% and you feeling the pain."
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From "Excess Returns" YouTube channel, (link in comment)
