Tech Fund 估算今年全球 AI ARR 达 4140 亿美元
源：https://t.co/kBuwdIhnEo
Tech Fund 算了笔账：AI 一年到底收多少钱、砸进去 9310 亿资本开支回报够不够，数字都在这了。
Tech Fund 估算剔除中国后，2025 年底全球 AI ARR 约 4140 亿美元。其中 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 贡献 1870 亿美元，云厂商转售收入另计 660 亿美元。Meta 和 Google 过去 2.5 年因 AI 带来约 950 亿美元广告增量收入，年底预计达 1080 亿美元。按 9310 亿美元、3.5 年累计 AI 资本开支和 6 年设备寿命计算，对应约 12% 的整体 IRR。
源：https://t.co/kBuwdIhnEo
源： x.com/techfund1/stat… Tech Fund @techfund1 We estimate $414 billion in overall AI ARR by the end of this year (ex-China) 1. $187 billion in ARR from Anthropic and OpenAI (split between the labs and clouds who resell their models). 2. We estimate that ad-based ARRs for the two internet giants - Meta and Google - have been boosted by $95 billion over the past 2.5 years thanks to AI (based on the excess of their realized, high ad growth rates vs normalized growth rates). We estimate that this will increase to $108 billion by year end. 3. The various clouds - excluding frontier lab revenue - should be about $66 billion in AI ARR by the end of this year. 4. AI native apps and SaaS are generating $33 billion in AI revenue. 5. Smaller line items such as other frontier AI (Grok, Gemini subscriptions, etc.) and how AI is benefitting other ad networks (such as Amazon, Applovin, Unity, etc.) add another $20 billion in ARR. Taking reasonable assumptions, such as a 6 year life for the equipment, this should give an overall 12% IRR on the $931 billion in AI capex made over the past 3.5 years. Link with the details below 🔗 View Quoted Tweet 💬 0 🔄 0 ❤️ 0 👀 251 ⚡
