美银研究：AI资本支出超预期50%，收入仅超20%
美银算了笔账：AI capex 超预期 50% 但收入只超 20%，还给出 2030 年前 9.5 万亿美元的资金缺口，数字很具体。
Bank of America 的研究测算，今年 AI 资本支出比预期高出 50%，而收入只高出 20%，这一缺口构成其分析基础。超大规模云厂商的加权平均资本成本已从 2023 年的 4% 升至 10%。研究仍预测前 5 大超大规模厂商加 neoclouds 的 capex 在 2026 年达 9560 亿美元、2027 年 1.32 万亿美元、2028 年 1.5 万亿美元，对应增速 38% 和 14%。按其需求模型，2026 至 2030 年新增 212GW 数据中心容量约需 9.5 万亿美元，比当前 7.4 万亿美元的 capex 预测高出 2.1 万亿美元。
Bank of America’s new research finds AI capital spending running 50% above forecasts this year while revenue runs only 20% above, and that mismatch drives the rest of its analysis.
Hyperscalers’ weighted average cost of capital has risen from 4% in 2023 to 10%, as risk-free rates sit more than 4% above pandemic lows and debt costs, equity costs and betas have all climbed.
The BoA research still projects capex for the top 5 hyperscalers plus neoclouds at $956B in 2026, $1.32T in 2027 and $1.5T in 2028, which works out to growth of 38% and then 14%.
Its demand math puts 212GW of new data center capacity between 2026 and 2030 at about $9.5T, $2.1T above the current $7.4T capex forecast.
