研究多智能体决策中提示词学习的机制

Recursive Reasoning or Statistical Extrapolation? In-Context Learning in Multi-Agent Interdependent Decision-Making

In-context learning (ICL) enables large language model (LLM) agents to improve decisions using interaction history, yet it remains unclear whether such improvement reflects refined internal reasoning or mere extrapolation of statistical patterns. To disentangle these mechanisms, we study LLM agents in multi-agent incomplete-information games that require recursive belief reasoning. By constructing a public goods game and manipulating the statistical structure of historical feedback, we evaluate decision quality against a history-independent rational expectations equilibrium (REE) benchmark. Our experiments reveal that when historical statistical patterns are disrupted, the benefits of longer context largely vanish, degrading decision quality to the no-context baseline in a way sharply amplified by stronger strategic interdependence. These results suggest that, in such strategic environments, ICL behavior is more consistent with statistical extrapolation than with strategic reasoning. Our work extends the mechanistic study of ICL to strategic multi-agent settings, introduces REE as a diagnostic tool for distinguishing reasoning from extrapolation, and provides a reusable framework for probing the boundaries of LLM reasoning in recursive belief tasks.

本条情报归属 AITOP「论文」核心栏目，重点聚焦北美前沿实验室与硅谷科技巨头。在跨区域产业观察坐标中，该动态直接关联「AI 开发者工具链、Coding Agent 与工程化实践」研究主线，反映出当前技术演进与商业落地的最新风向。涉及核心实体与技术议题包括：in-context learning、多智能体、提示词工程，读者可通过下方标签进入对应专题页查阅历史脉络与关联对比。

信源核验说明：本文原始线索采编自「arXiv cs.AI」（@Yu Liu, Wenwen Li, Yifan Dou, Guangnan Ye），经 AITOP 多维评分管线结构化提炼。