OpenAI 和 Anthropic 的财务依赖性引发行业担忧

原文：https://t.co/vCrj71VhYk

原文： x.com/trevornoren/st… Trevor Noren @trevornoren Alphaville: "The share of queries that are truly closed-weight frontier-model-worthy is declining. Back at the start of the year, 3/5s of its queries were routed through to closed-weight proprietary models. The latest share is just 1/4...OpenAI and Anthropic are private companies yet to list or issue rated debt. While totemically and technologically significant, companies at this stage of their lifecycle are really not supposed to be financially important...But their centrality to the industry that they dominate and the degree of circular financing in place means that this doesn’t look nailed on...The leading AI labs are cash-burning monsters, kept alive by the faith that their hyperscaler investors have in them. This is faith not only in the evident brilliance of their inventions, but also in the promise that their genius can be monetised at a pace that eclipses payments due to service debt, lease commitments, forward power agreements, the works." In my new report on "The AI Trade" ( sageroadresearch.com/products/the-a… ), I dive deep on the open-weight threat and what it could mean for investor expectations about the sustainability of Anthropic's and OpenAI's business models. To quote the report: "Since ChatGPT’s debut, AI has been a speculative bet on an unprecedented collective scale. There’s never been a clear path to profitability. There’s never been guarantees about the technology’s rate of improvement and timeline to game-changing enterprise transformation. From tech giants to financial institutions to retail investors, AI enthusiasm has rested on faith-driven patience—belief that the promise so many see in the technology’s current capabilities will at some point lead to future capabilities that generate skyrocketing profits. The question today: how much longer will that patience last?... It’s hard to overstate how much hinges on Anthropic's and OpenAI's IPOs. They will account for 13% of AWS revenue and 27% of Google Cloud revenue this year. As for Microsoft, OpenAI alone accounts for roughly 70% of its AI-specific revenue. OpenAI has committed to tens of billions of spending on chips. Deepening circularity concerns, tech giant earnings growth has been increasingly driven by paper gains in the private-market valuations of Anthropic and OpenAI. In Q2, Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft reported $160b in cumulative “other income”, trouncing the $69b in “other income” reported in Q1. To quote the FT: “These one-off valuation boosts, derived in large part from enthusiasm around AI, risk distorting the financial picture at a time when investors are closely scrutinizing tech earnings.” If either Anthropic or OpenAI stumble, it’ll hit tech giants on multiple balance-sheet fronts. A pin-prick popping of the AI bubble may not be our base case, but if a pin is out there, it’s likely the revenue versus spending trajectories of Anthropic and OpenAI." FT link: ft.com/content/48588a… 🔗 View Quoted Tweet 💬 0 🔄 0 ❤️ 0 👀 354 ⚡