Gary Marcus 质疑 AGI 预言：愿意公开下注的人为零
Gary Marcus 炮轰 Anthropic 研究员的 AGI 两年论，还翻出 Musk 拒绝他 100 万美元赌约的旧账，看各方怎么吵挺有意思。
Gary Marcus 在 X 上发文，批评 Anthropic 研究员 Sholto Douglas 关于“AGI 两三年内可实现”的说法。Marcus 提到他在 2024 年曾向 Elon Musk 提出针对其 AGI 预言的 100 万美元公开对赌，Musk 未接受。他还点名 Dario Amodei 当年做出过类似且已被证伪的预测，认为媒体没有追责，导致唱高调者持续造势而零成本。
The number of prominent people who have said stuff like this that are willing to make a public bet to put their money where the mouth is is exactly zero. ( @elonmusk said something similar in 2024 about 2025; I offered him a $1M bet against, and he didn’t take it. Dario made similar claims, since proven false, around the same time, etc. Media never holds them to account, so hypers keep on hyping, without penalty.) Haider. @haider1 Anthropic Researcher Sholto Douglas: "we think AGI is achievable in the next couple of years — models as capable as or more capable than all humans, able to do anything a human could do on a computer" It would multiply intellectual and physical labor, potentially delivering centuries of progress much sooner Your browser does not support the video tag. 🔗 View on Twitter 🔗 View Quoted Tweet 💬 5 🔄 2 ❤️ 15 👀 1263 📊 5 ⚡