行业73°
AI进步与投资增长关系分析
精选理由
AI投资增速超过技术进步增速，行业需解决资源循环问题
2023-2026年间，AI进步指标呈现指数级增长，而同期AI资本支出呈现超指数级增长。AI系统对外部投资的响应呈现轻微次线性特征。长期来看，超指数级资源投入不可持续，AI行业需要实现匹配的指数级利润增长来维持进步。
原文 · François Chollet
Most measures of AI progress closely fit an exponential over the 2023-2026 period. Meanwhile AI capex over the same period has been slightly super-exponential (i.e. the rate of growth itself is increasing).
So if you model AI as a system that takes as input external investment and outputs AI progress, that system has a slightly sub-linear response.
But super-exponential injection of *external* resources is not sustainable in the long-term. To achieve sustained exponential progress, the AI industry will need to achieve matching exponential profits -- it will need to close the resource loop.
