Morgan Stanley：Nvidia 是 AI 板块最佳风险收益比，但高度依赖少数买家
Morgan Stanley 拆了 Nvidia 的账：1.58 万亿云厂商支出里近 7000 亿归它，但一半押在 SpaceX 和 AWS 两家买家身上，还缺 32GW 电力。
Morgan Stanley 将 Nvidia 评为 AI 领域风险收益比最佳的标的，指出其 2027 年营收中 91.7% 依赖基础设施需求。该行预计超大规模云厂商和 AI 云服务商 2027 年支出将达 1.58 万亿美元，同比增长约 60%，其中近 7000 亿美元流向 Nvidia。模型显示 SpaceX 和 Amazon Web Services 两家买家合计占 Nvidia 2027 年超大规模厂商营收的约 54%、贡献 72% 的增长。该行按 15 倍 2028 财年市盈率仍认为股票便宜，并称分析师此前对 4 个算力周期的预测平均低估 38%。不过 Morgan Stanley 自己的电力模型预测，到 2028 年美国数据中心将比所需的 97GW 缺口 32GW。
Morgan Stanley rates Nvidia AI’s best risk/reward, though 91.7% of its 2027 revenue is exposed to infrastructure demand.
MS research expects hyperscalers and AI cloud providers to spend $1.58T in 2027, up roughly 60%, with nearly $700B reaching Nvidia.
That haul leans on 2 buyers, with SpaceX and Amazon Web Services modeled at about 54% of Nvidia’s 2027 hyperscaler revenue and 72% of growth.
Morgan Stanley still calls the stock cheap at 15 times fiscal 2028 earnings, arguing analysts underestimated 4 past compute cycles by 38% on average.
Its own power model, though, projects US data centers falling 32GW short of the 97GW they need through 2028.
