Dario 预测中国模型 6-12 个月追上,5 个月后应验
Dario 今年 5 月说中国模型 6-12 个月内会追上,现在 5 个月过去趋势对上了,这篇推文值得看看时间线。
Gergely Orosz 在 X 上引用 Dario Amodei 今年 5 月的判断:留给美国模型的窗口期只有 6-12 个月。Dario 当时依据的是 Mythos 所展现的能力水平。目前距离该预测已过去 5 个月,Orosz 认为中国模型追进的进度基本符合这一时间线。
Credit to Dario who said pretty much exactly this would happen, and on this timeline, thanks to seeing what Mythos could do.
In May, Dario said there's a 6-12 month window before Chinese models catch up was also correct. That was 5 months ago. https://t.co/cWti786nNK