Chamath 谈 SpaceX 与 Anthropic 算力合约：算力价格翻倍时按合同重定价
Chamath 拆解 SpaceX 和 Anthropic 那笔算力合约：90 天退出条款意味着价格涨 2-3 倍就得重签，纯算账不讲情面。
Chamath 在 All-In Podcast 上分析 SpaceX 与 Anthropic 算力合约的价格逻辑。他指出若数据中心稀缺把算力现货价格推高 2 到 3 倍，Anthropic 按旧合约价支付的每 GPU 小时对 SpaceX 就变成负期望值交易。合约设有 90 天退出条款，届时按市价重新定价是理性选择。他补充说届时愿意支付溢价的买家会是有大资产负债表的巨头，比如 Google 或 Meta。
Chamath: If data center scarcity pushes compute prices up 2x to 3x, the pricing of the SpaceX and Anthropic compute deal will be decided by a spreadsheet, whatever the relationship between the two companies.
If spot prices for compute spike far enough, a contract with a 90 day exit should be repriced, because keeping the old rate loses money.
if the market price for compute rises far above what Anthropic pays under its contract, SpaceX would earn less on every GPU hour it keeps selling at the old rate, so using the 90 day exit to reprice becomes the only rational business move.
"This has nothing to do with their working relationship or whether Anthropic is a good or bad company or SpaceX is a good or bad company. This is nothing to do with that. This is a spreadsheet and the spreadsheet will dictate the answer. And the question is if spot spikes you are economically forced to do this beyond a certain threshold.”
“I’m not saying throw it up to spot. What I’m saying is when spot moves sufficiently, even a long-term offtake moves so much that existing contracts are negative EV. And so you just got to move existing contracts to positive EV territory.
And if you can get out in 90 days and reprice something into positive EV territory, you should. So my point is more that beyond a certain point if a bunch of data centers get slowed down, a bunch of constraint happens, there’s going to be a lot less capacity than people think. The dollar cost per megawatt per month is going to go through the roof. The dollar cost of a GPU hour is going to go through the roof. And the people that will be willing to pay the premium are going to be the ginormous companies with huge balance sheets. And so you could just sell it to Google or Meta if you wanted to. You don’t have to sell it to OpenAI."
---- Full video on "All-In Podcast" YouTube channel, (link in comment)
