a16z 对谈：AI 成本 3 年降幅相当于 PC 15 年
a16z 和 TypeSafe 聊了件挺实在的事：AI 降价 3 年顶 PC 15 年，智能便宜到可以嵌进软件底层，聊聊为什么聊天框时代快到头了。
a16z 发布与 TypeSafe 创始人 Diogo Almeida 的对谈，核心观点是 AI 智能成本在 3 年内的下降幅度相当于 PC 在 15 年内的降幅。Almeida 认为，廉价智能让模型走出聊天框、进入真正干活的软件系统，而过去 10 年软件只是多了个能做部分动作的侧边 chatbot。合伙人 Martin Casado 表示，智能成为一种新原语，系统将迎来重建。对谈还用 Jevons 效应解释：成本降低不会减少算力消耗，反而会催生新的工作类型。
AI deflated as much in 3 years as PCs did in 15 Cheap intelligence is what lets a model move out of the chatbot and into the software where the work happens a16z @a16z TypeSafe AI's Diogo Almeida on why Jev is called Jev, and what cheap intelligence finally changes about software: "It's wild that AI is so cool and software has been unchanged in 10 years... The most we can do is add a little chatbot in the side sometimes that can take actions, but not all actions." "TypeSafe is making AI for software. We want to make AI powerful, not just for humans in the loop, but to actually build real software." "It's about the laziness to spend 10 hours to do the five-minute task instantly and to never have to do it again. It should be an ROI decision for people who automate stuff. I would just like it to be automatable." "I think that people will just make new kinds of work, hence the Jev in Jevons. New kinds of work once that stuff is doable." "As we have lots of intelligence at lots of different cost and speed trade-offs, the super systems-y types will be making trade-offs. Jev's gonna be 1000x too smart for them. They just want an approximate guess to optimistically route here and there." Martin Casado: "The good news is we get to rebuild systems again. We have a new primitive. It's kind of a new way of thinking about doing software." @CompleteSkeptic @typesafeai @bhorowitz @martin_casado Your browser does not support the video tag. 🔗 View on Twitter 🔗 View Quoted Tweet 💬 8 🔄 5 ❤️ 41 👀 5582 📊 10 ⚡