基于物理的预测模型提升激光增材制造晶粒取向精度
Physics-based prediction, uncertainty quantification and decision-making for IN718 crystallographic texture intensity across LPBF defocus regimes
这个研究用物理模型解决了黑盒模型在激光增材制造中预测晶粒取向时的局限性，通过区分数据适用性、物理有效性和预测不确定性，实现了更可靠的决策，值得一看。
这项研究开发了一种两阶段物理模型，用于预测激光粉末床熔合（LPBF）过程中Inconel 718的<001>||BD晶粒取向强度。第一阶段将工艺变量映射到熔化模式和熔池几何形状，第二阶段结合经验物理模型和随机森林残差模型进行预测。通过k-最近邻权重衰减残差修正，以及特定面积束功率密度准则限制预测范围，该模型在保留物理有效数据集上的R²达到0.778，显著优于黑盒模型（-0.001）和门控混合模型（0.750）。在分组交叉验证中，保留集覆盖率达92.9%，置信区间宽度为3.65 MUD，在转移至未知的+80mm偏焦 regime时，覆盖率仍达100%，宽度为3.21 MUD。
Physics-based prediction, uncertainty quantification and decision-making for IN718 crystallographic texture intensity across LPBF defocus regimes
Reliable prediction of crystallographic texture in laser powder bed fusion is critical for linking process conditions with anisotropic response and for qualification. However, black-box models may fail under shift and cannot distinguish weak data support from loss of physical validity. This study develops a two-stage physics-based model for <001> || BD (build direction) texture in Inconel 718. Stage 1 maps process variables to melting mode and melt pool geometry. Stage 2 predicts texture by combining an empirical physics model with a random-forest residual model. A k-nearest-neighbor weight attenuates residual corrections for poorly supported queries, while a study-specific areal beam-power-density criterion withholds predictions outside the adopted conduction envelope. Conformal intervals are evaluated on the retained physics-valid set, and SHAP and Sobol analyses assess residual sensitivity. Under a controlled leave-one-defocus-out evaluation, the physics anchor achieved R^2 = 0.778, against -0.001 for the black-box model and 0.750 for the gated hybrid. Under leave-one-group-out cross-validation, the gated hybrid reached R^2 = 0.592 against 0.538 for the black-box model. Retained-set coverage was 92.9% at a mean full width of 3.65 multiples of a uniform distribution (MUD) under grouped cross-validation and 100% at a width of 3.21 MUD under transfer to a withheld +80 mm defocus regime. An illustrative mapping produced a retained BD elastic-modulus span of 127-187 GPa. On nine conditions from a separately built sample set, the framework withheld three, attenuated three, and matched the measured ordering for the rest. Separating data applicability, physics validity, and predictive uncertainty into distinct decisions lets the framework transfer where an unconstrained model does not, and withhold predictions where no model class performs adequately.